Mexico forecast to add 24 TWh of clean energy by 2022

Mexico’s CEL market supply and demand. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, PRODESEN, SENER

Mexico’s 2013 energy reform has changed the corporate power market dramatically. The introduction of a market in clean energy certificates (CEL) will lead to the generation of an additional 24 TWh of clean energy by 2022, Bloomberg New Energy Finance finds in its 1H 2018 Corporate Energy Market Outlook.

The CELs are the primary mechanism by which Mexico intends to achieve its goal of 35 percent clean-energy generation by 2024. The CEL market, which kicks off in 2018, will impose a 5 percent CEL mandate relative to power consumption for 2018. The mandate increases to 13.9 percent in 2022.

Large corporations can purchase certificates via bilateral contracts or through the wholesale market. HSBC Holdings Plc, Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV and Deacero SA de CV have signed power-purchase agreements for 272 megawatts of clean energy, giving them a head start on meeting their sustainability goals in Mexico.

Though Mexico has an established track record of bilateral agreements predating the unbundling of its power market, with 3.4 gigawatts in renewable energy capacity installed with corporate PPAs from 2008 to 2017, under the new rules corporations can sign PPAs in a similar fashion to the U.S.

Mexico’s three clean-energy auctions to date have brokered the sale of 5.4 million CELs for delivery starting in 2018, 9.3 million for 2019 and 5.9 million for 2020. This indicates a sizable gap through the first three years and points to the potential for substantial further clean energy additions — a shortfall that may drive further corporate PPAs.