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The power sector is witnessing significant changes. As 2019 draws to a close, GlobalData, looks at the key trends that will shape the industry in 2020, ranging from electric vehicles to corporate power purchase agreements (PPAs).

Electric vehicles

The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is set to continue on the steep trajectory witnessed in the last few years. The global EV fleet, which stood at over 5.1 million in 2018, is expected to reach around 130 million by 2030 as per International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts.

Governments across the world are setting targets for deployments of EVs and these policy signals are encouraging industry stakeholders to invest across the EV supply chain. In addition, large power utilities such as EDF, E.ON and Enel in Europe have been investing in EV charging station infrastructure, and this market is witnessing consolidation – a trend that is expected to continue. Increasingly, power utilities are collaborating with EV manufacturers to boost their offerings in areas such as EV charging, vehicle-to-grid (V2G) services, energy storage and renewable energy sources. Oil majors such as Shell, BP and Total are also placing huge bets in this market through acquisitions.

Digitalization

Power utilities, which have traditionally been averse to the adoption of new technologies, are now realizing their benefits and offering heavy investment. An emerging technology trends survey conducted by GlobalData reveals that cyber security, big data, cloud computing, robotics and Internet of Things (IoT) are being seen as the top five technologies that will have the maximum impact on the sector over the next three years.

Cybersecurity is receiving the maximum attention from power companies in order to protect grids from cyber-attacks. Power utilities realize the crippling effect such attacks can have on the grid and are hence willing to invest heavily to protect against them.

With ever more data coming out of the customers’ meters, utilities are focusing on data analytics for load forecasting, generation planning, managing peaks and increasing customers’ awareness regarding energy efficiency. Big data and cloud computing are useful tools that are aiding these initiatives. Cloud models are helping utilities to lower their IT capital expenditure (capex) and offer unlimited computing and advanced analytics, while IoT is helping power companies to remotely monitor and manage their assets. Utilities are also able to conduct predictive maintenance of their assets with the assistance of IoT.

Grid-scale battery storage

Energy storage installation among end-users (renewable energy generators, grid operators and distributed generation) is projected to witness larger growth due to smart grid development. The battery energy storage system (BESS) market, which is estimated at 4.9 gigawatt (GW) in 2018, is forecast to reach 22.2GW by 2023.

The economies of energy storage in a wide range of applications, coupled with the falling cost of systems, will likely result in the rapid growth of battery energy storage solutions. Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries are emerging as crucial for energy storage, and the increasing growth of EVs has resulted in advancements in lithium-ion technologies and a steady decline in the prices of lithium-based batteries.

Several energy storage projects in the pipeline have been accelerated by incentive programs. The deployment is expected to grow, due to a large number of countries opting for storage utilization to support their power sector transformation. The US introduced several bills and policies related to energy storage, and the country has comprehensive incentive programs supporting battery utilization. In the meanwhile, India published a national energy storage mission, outlining the country’s ambition to become a market leader in the manufacture of batteries. Similarly, China and Germany are exploiting opportunities to capitalize on the growing market for batteries.

Microgrids

Microgrids will continue to make inroads in the power sector, driven by the need for resiliency, energy security and the electrification of remote areas. This year has seen a number of microgrid projects being announced by companies across the world. Utilities such as Duke Energy, EDF, Engie and AusNet have been involved in the development of microgrid projects, the scale of which has also been increasing with projects as large as the 100MW Armonia Microgrid Project in Palau being developed.

Policy developments have been encouraging. For example, Hawaii has become the first state to initiate microgrid tariffs. California is also following close behind, trying to enact legislation in this direction.

Corporate PPAs

Large corporates are increasingly signing PPAs with generators to meet their power needs. Most of these are signed with renewable energy generators, enabling them to increase the share of renewable energy in their total consumption. Companies such as Google, Amazon, Facebook and Microsoft have continued to sign PPAs during 2019 and this trend is expected to continue in the future due to the expansion of the data centers market increasing their power requirements.

Retailers such as Tesco and Walmart have also been involved in signing PPAs in 2019. The rise in corporate PPAs is fuelled by the withdrawal of feed-in-tariffs (FITs) and other incentives for wind and solar power coupled with the move towards auction mechanisms. Under these circumstances, corporate PPAs offer an opportunity for developers to sell their power profitably.

Source: GlobalData

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Power industry tenders activity in September 2019 saw 642 tenders announced, marking a drop of 37% over the last 12-month average of 1,018, according to GlobalData’s power database.

On comparing tenders activity in different regions of the globe, Asia-Pacific held the top position with 425 tenders and a share of 66.2% during September 2019, followed by Middle East and Africa with 122 tenders and a 19% share and Europe with 70 tenders and a 10.9% share. In fourth place was North America with 22 tenders and a 3.4% share and in fifth place was South and Central America with three tenders and a 0.5% share. On the basis of the last 12-month average, Asia-Pacific held a lead over others with 620 tenders, followed by North America with 146.

Looking at tenders by the type of technology, thermal accounted for the largest proportion with 102 tenders and a 48.6% share, followed by solar with 73 tenders and a 34.8% share and wind with 14 tenders and a 6.7% share.

Looking at power industry tenders divided by segment as tracked by GlobalData, T&D project was the most popular segment during September 2019, with 296 tenders, followed by T&D equipment (149) and generation equipment (99).

The proportion of tenders by category tracked by GlobalData in the month was as follows:

• Project implementation: 264 tenders and a 41.1% share
• Supply & erection: 207 tenders and a 32.2% share
• Repair, maintenance, upgrade & others: 145 tenders and a 22.6% share
• Electricity supply: 13 tenders and a 2% share
• Consulting & similar services: nine tenders and a 1.4% share
• Power purchase agreement: four tenders and a 0.6% share.

The top issuers of tenders for the month in terms of power capacity involved were:

• NHPC (India): 2,000 MW from one tender
• Baltimore Gas and Electric (United States): 1,729 MW from one tender
• Solar Energy Corporation of India (India): 1,200 MW capacity from one tender.

Source: GlobalData

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Silicon wafer accounts for 30%-40% of the cost of a solar module. Larger wafer size increase the area exposed to light, increasing power and reducing cost. So that, since 2H-2018, the industry has continued to develop larger size wafers, leading to various specifications.

LONGi Solar has launched recently a press release stressesing the need for consistency in standards for PV wafers size. As the press release states, according to Professor Shen Wenzhong, Director, Solar Energy Research Institute of Shanghai Jiaotong University: “The 166 mm wafer has reached the allowable limit of production equipment which is difficult to overcome. This would be the upper limit of the standard for a considerable period.”

Li Zhenguo, President of LONGi Group considers that these different wafer sizes will lead to a mismatch in processes and standards in the supply chain, according to. “If manufacturers cannot reach an agreement on a size standard, it will restrict the development of the whole industry.” said.

Shen Wenzhong also said: “Existing crystal drawing and slicing equipment are compatible with 166 mm size silicon wafer. Production equipment for cell and module needs to be modified, though the costs are lower and easier to achieve. Calculated by “flux”, cell and module production line using 166 mm wafer will increase capacity by 13% as compared with the 156 mm size”.

The order books for LONGi’s Hi-MO4 modules using M6 monocrystalline silicon wafers, 166 mm, have exceeded 2 GW, so that large-scale production will commence the third quarter of 2019.

By the end of 2020, LONGi will upgrade its existing cell and module lines and transform them for production with 166 mm wafer. New lines – such as the 5 GW monocrystalline cell line in Yinchuan – will be designed for the 166 mm size from the start.

LONGi announced the price of its M6 monocrystalline silicon wafer in May-2019 at 3.47 RMB/piece, which is only a small 0.4 RMB premium compared to its M2 wafer. According to LONGi, the compatibility of wafer production lines with M6 would ensure large-scale supply in 2019, thereby reducing the price differential to less than 0.2 RMB.

Source: LONGi

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Wind technology contracts activity in July 2019 saw 53 contracts announced, marking a drop of 32% over the last 12-month average of 78, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

Onshore was the top category in wind technology in terms of number of contracts for the month, accounting for 35 contracts and a 66% share, followed by Offshore with 17 contracts and a 32.1% share. Onshore Repowered stood in third place with one contract and a 1.9% share.

Looking at global power contracts activity divided by the type of technology, wind held the second position in terms of number of contracts during July 2019 with a 29% share.

The proportion of contracts by category in the Wind technology tracked by GlobalData in the month was as follows:

  • Supply & Erection: 21 contracts and a 39.6% share
  • Project Implementation: 19 contracts and a 35.8% share
  • Power Purchase Agreement: ten contracts and an 18.9% share
  • Repair, Maintenance, Upgrade & Others: one contract and a 1.9% share
  • Consulting & Similar Services: one contract and a 1.9% share
  • Electricity Supply: one contract and a 1.9% share

 

Europe leads wind contracts activity in July 2019
Comparing contracts activity in wind technology in different regions of the globe, Europe held the top position with 24 contracts and a share of 45.3% during July 2019, followed by North America with 14 contracts and a 26.4% share and Asia-Pacific with eight contracts and a 15.1% share.

In fourth place was South and Central America with four contracts and a 7.5% share and in fifth place was Middle East and Africa with three contracts and a 5.7% share.

Wind technology contracts in July 2019: Top companies by capacity
The top issuers of contracts in Wind technology for the month in terms of power capacity involved were:

  • EDF Renewables North America (United States): 514MW from two contracts
  • Plambeck Emirates: 500MW from one contract
  • EDF Renewables (United States) and Abu Dhabi Future Energy (United Arab Emirates): 415.8MW capacity from one contract

Wind technology contracts in July 2019: Top winners by capacity
The top winners of contracts for the month in terms of power capacity involved were:

  • Infrastructure and Energy Alternatives (United States): 514MW from two contracts
  • Saipem (Italy): 500MW from one contract
  • Vestas Mediterranean (Spain): 415.8MW capacity from one contract

Source: GlobalData

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Sistema de almacenamiento en baterías de 2.3 MW para mantener la estabilidad de la red en las islas Feroe | 2.3 MW BESS to maintain the grid stability of the Faroe Islands. Foto cortesía de / Photo courtesy of: Saft

The energy storage market has caught the eye of a number of stakeholders involved in the power industry, leading to its considerable growth and opening the way for next energy revolution, says GlobalData. GlobalData’s latest thematic report, ‘Thematic Research: Energy Storage’, highlights the present scenario and emerging market trends in the global energy storage industry, and the key companies behind the development of three energy storage technologies: electrochemical, mechanical and thermal energy storage.

The energy storage market is nascent but fast-growing. The demand for energy storage system (ESS) devices in the power sector is increasing rapidly, particularly after the increase in the renewable energy integration into the grids. Intermittent power supply led to demand for the storage of electrical energy and supply during peak load periods. ESS devices can help make renewable energy -whose power output cannot be controlled by grid operators- smooth and dispatchable.

With the global energy storage market becoming one of the rapidly growing segments within the renewable power mix, equipment manufacturers or technology providers of energy storage technologies are focused on innovating their energy storage solutions and offering advanced energy storage systems.

Battery energy storage system (BESS) is regarded as a crucial solution for overcoming the intermittency limitations of renewable energy sources (RES). The battery energy storage market reported cumulative deployment of 4.9 GW at the end of 2018 and is expected to reach 22.2 GW in 2023, with the US accounting for 24.7% of the global capacity. The deployment is expected to grow, due to a large number of countries opting for storage utilization to support their power sector transformation.

The expansion in battery manufacturing capacity and falling costs resulting from the electric vehicle (EV) industry are driving growth in energy storage services and new markets. This fall in battery prices has favored the battery energy storage market and has speeded the deployment of energy storage projects globally.

Currently, lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries dominate the electrochemical energy storage market but other battery energy storage technologies such as sodium-sulfur (NaS), lead-acid and flow batteries are now getting deployed. While, thermal energy storage utilizing molten salt is among the most widely used technology in association with concentrated solar power (CSP) projects, among mechanical energy storage technologies, pumped hydroelectric storage systems is among the most mature energy storage technologies and offers a number of benefits such as energy-balancing, stability, storage capacity, along with ancillary grid services which include network frequency control and reserves.

Source: GlobalData

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The four conferences of The smarter E Europe, the innovation hub for empowering new energy solutions, offer an insight into the energy future as well as information about current technological trends and business models. They include the Smart Renewable Systems Conference, Intersolar Europe Conference, ees Europe Conference and Power2Drive Europe Conference. On May 14 and 15, attendees can gain access to all four events in Munich with just a single ticket. The conferences cover aspects of tomorrow’s decentralized, digital and renewable energy supply and bring together the most important stakeholders in the energy industry.

Renewable energies already play a major role in the supply system today. From generation and storage to distribution and usage, in the future every step in the entire energy supply chain needs to seamlessly merge together to operate and interact intelligently. And the renewable energy market keeps on growing. This is due to falling costs and new scopes of application as well as new business models and stakeholders entering the market. The energy industry is changing, becoming increasingly decentralized, digitalized and environmentally friendly.

The road to this new energy world and the rules of the game are explained by leading experts from the clean energy industry at four conferences.

Intelligent energy systems in the spotlight

At the Smart Renewable Systems Conference, the spotlight is turned on intelligent energy systems, from virtual power plants and microgrids to smart markets. Digital technologies and new business models are transforming the relationship between energy producers and consumers. Experts at the conference are set to examine what the energy market of the future will look like, among other topics. On the first day of the event, they will present examples and trends, such as how private, commercial and industry customers can optimize local resources. The second day has presentations in store to share expertise on developments and business opportunities for linking decentralized energy resources with the power grid.

Photovoltaics from every angle

The focus will be on markets, technologies and financing for PV projects at the Intersolar Europe Conference. As well as market development in Europe, this year experts will particularly be shining a light on markets in Africa and in the MENA region (Middle East and North Africa). The International Energy Agency (IEA), for example, is organizing a workshop on the performance and operational reliability of PV, as well as PV systems operations and maintenance. Further sessions will cover the interaction of PV and storage. Participants will also discover valuable information about new applications of solar installations, in façades, on agricultural land and on water.

Everything there is to know about energy storage

The ees Europe Conference offers orientation on battery systems and stationary energy storage systems – covering markets, financing, business models, production technologies and safety aspects. In the “Compare and Contrast” series, for example, experts will introduce energy storage projects and their most important data in short presentations, so they can be directly compared. Further details and practical tips will be provided in the follow-up discussion.

What’s needed for sustainable mobility

Electric vehicles powered by solar or wind are the key to developing a new, climate-friendly and sustainable model of mobility worldwide. Most importantly, e-mobility needs a well-developed, comprehensive charging infrastructure in order to prevail. Power2drive Europe Conference provides answers as to how this infrastructure is developing globally and where promising markets can be found. Further topics include successful business and billing models and legal frameworks.

Source: Solar Promotin

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Ilustración del concepto Smart Power Generation / SPG concept illustration

The technology group Wärtsilä has been the pioneer to promote flexibility in energy systems to enable greater use of solar and wind power. The company’s Smart Power Generation solution was launched ten years ago in recognition of growing environmental awareness within the industry, and in anticipation of increasing adoption of energy from renewable sources. As the energy industry transformation accelerates, with traditional baseload plants unable to efficiently cope with the new realities, Wärtsilä’s vision is being endorsed with an increasing market share in the <500 MW market segment, growing from 13 percent in 2016 to 19 percent in 2017, according to the McCoy Power Report. The cost competitiveness of wind and solar power is rapidly increasing. For example, the cost per kW of wind power plants has dropped by 40 percent during the past 20 years, while the cost per kW of solar plants has dropped by more than 90 percent during the same period. Consequently, renewables currently represent one of the cheapest ways to produce electricity in areas with good wind and solar conditions, making them viable without the need for government subsidies. Today, wind and solar power plants produce approximately 1,100 GW of electricity globally and forecasts indicate that this will increase to 2,000 GW by 2024. That flexibility is essential in systems using energy produced by wind and solar is today an unchallenged fact. Wärtsilä’s approach, with its Smart Power Generation solution, provides the ability to go offline and restart quickly, multiple times per day, while its energy storage capabilities serve to smooth variations in supply and store excess power from renewables. “Wärtsilä’s share of the global power plant market is growing because we have successfully established ourselves as a systems integrator and service provider in this changing world. We can offer not only power generation assets, but also storage and integration software solutions, as well as operations, maintenance and lifecycle optimisation of the assets,” says Javier Cavada, President, Wärtsilä Energy Solutions.

Recent examples of the role that Wärtsilä’s Smart Power Generation is playing in this energy transition include two power plants ordered by the Upper Michigan Energy Resources Corporation in the USA. They will accommodate a broad range of operating profiles for which flexibility is a prime requirement. In Arizona, Tucson Electric Power (TEP) is building a 200 MW Wärtsilä Smart Power Generation plant to provide the needed flexibility for integrating more wind and solar into its system. AGL Energy Ltd, one of Australia’s leading integrated energy companies, recently ordered a 211 MW Wärtsilä plant to provide the reliability and fast-starting capability required to enable increased levels of energy from renewable sources.

Source: Wärtsilä

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Digital technologies for fossil fuel operation and maintenance are big business today, but activity is shifting towards services for distributed renewables and the connected home. New energy innovations will be centered on digital technologies and the strategic use of data, according to new research published today. A shift is coming in the energy industry from a focus on hardware to the increased importance of software in order to make systems more efficient, resilient, and digital.

Digitalization of Energy Systems, a report by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), predicts significant shifts in the intelligence of digital technologies used in energy from today to 2025, and a big change in the sectors of the energy system that most benefit from these technologies.

Today, the biggest use of digital technologies like sensors, data collection and analytics in the energy sector is to improve the bottom line of fossil fuel generators. Revenue for digital services for fossil fuel operation and maintenance, or O&M, are estimated to be $24 billion in 2017 – some 44% of the total market size for digitalization measured by BNEF.

However, as natural gas and coal plants come offline, and those that remain become digitalized, the opportunities for new revenues from the fossil fuel sector will shrink. By 2025, digital technologies will be more intelligent and more capable, helping home owners that own rooftop solar, batteries or EVs (often termed ‘prosumers’), to become more autonomous and derive greater value from these assets. This could be through trading energy with neighbors or better management of peak power prices.

Home energy management technologies will see the most significant change in digital revenues, rising from $1 billion in 2017 to $11 billion in 2025. The largest driver for digital technology revenues in 2025 will be smart meters, growing 44% between now and 2025, to $26bn. This revenue increase matches the fall in digital revenues from fossil fuel O&M – 46% over that time period.

Digital technologies like big data, analytics and machine learning, blockchain, distributed energy resource management, and cloud computing, can help overcome some of the key challenges in the energy sector – most notably intermittency, aging grids, balancing distribution-connected generation, managing consumer self-generation, and coping with increasing system complexity.

Countries with high penetration of distributed renewables, good communications network infrastructure, and robust venture capital investment in digital technologies are likely to take rapid advantage of energy digitalization. Italy, for instance, is one of the global leaders in small-scale PV, has almost 100% high speed network coverage, and supportive regulation for digital technologies.

The U.S. will also do well, having long been a leader in digital technologies and early-stage fundraising. Australia, although ranking lower today, will move near the top of the group in 2025 due to high forecast levels of decentralized energy production. In emerging markets, countries that have beneficial government policies, foster innovative start-ups and are rolling-out network infrastructure are likely to digitalize soonest – for example Chile, Indonesia and Nigeria.

The motivation for industry digitalization will be different for each player. Generators and ‘prosumers’ are motivated by cost reduction, additional revenue streams and new services. Utilities face pressure from customers, government policy and regulation to improve their businesses. They can use digitization to streamline operations and enhance customer services.

The power sector has traditionally been served by large industrial companies selling primarily hardware, but innovation is increasingly centered on software and advanced technologies such as machine learning. Whether the winning solutions will come from industrials, start-ups, or technology companies remains to be seen.

Source: BNEF

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Just days ago, Vestas reported a historical record year. With a revenue of more than €10bn and a net profit of €965m in 2016, 41% more than in the previous year, it has an unparalleled global presence in the wind industry. Despite fierce competition and the challenges inherent to the energy industry, Vestas has maintained its leadership with 82 GW of installed capacity in 76 countries worldwide.

Latin America is one of the regions where Vestas is making a strong bet. Having consolidated its leadership in mature European markets such as Italy and France and having managed to position itself as the leading manufacturer in terms of installed capacity and number of new orders in the US last year, there is no let-up for Vestas. The company continues to lead an industry at global level that, as its chairman, Bert Nordberg, stated in the company’s annual report, “together with other sources of clean generation, will lead the future of the energy industry”.

 

Within this context of growth, Latin America has become a key region. During recent years, many countries on the American continent have jumped on the renewables band waggon, promoting green policies and supporting more efficient mechanisms to allocate electricity capacity, such as power auctions. This phenomenon has resulted in the majority of the orders secured in 2016 being concentrated in the second half of the year. Countries such as Chile, Mexico, Brazil and Argentina all held renewable energy auctions last year and some of the projects already awarded still have to materialise. Read more…

Article published in: FuturENERGY January-February 2017

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The European Utility Industry Awards hosted by European Utility Week (EUW) and Engerati, is now open for entries. The annual awards recognise the most outstanding individuals and projects in the smart energy sector. Entrants will battle to win one of five awards critical to areas of today’s energy industry. The categories include: The Community Energy Award, The Energy Management Award, The Energy Retail Award, The Energy Revolution Award and The Grid Intelligence Award. Entries are now being accepted via the Engerati – European Utility Awards website

The two-stage voting process will see applications reviewed and voted for by the 28,000 strong Engerati community. Five shortlisted entries per category will then make it through to the second round – the judging panel where four industry experts per category will select and rank their top three entries and the votes will be counted via an independent notary.

Last year’s winners included Schneider Electric for The Sustainable Development Award, Vandebron for The Smart Community Award, UK Power Networks for The Industry Innovation Award, Ovo Energy for The Utility Initiative award and Tobias Linnenberg, for The Young Innovator Award.

Entries are open until 30th September 2016. Winners will be announced on the opening night of European Utility Week, during a glittering awards ceremony and networking dinner. European Utility Week is an annual event connecting the smart utility industry. This year’s event will take place from 15th – 17th November 2016 at Fira Barcelona Gran Via, Barcelona, Spain.

If you are working on a project in the sustainable energy sector that you think deserves to be recognised, submit an entry via the Engerati website.

Source: Aspectus PR

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