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The energy transition requires more than 10 times solar and 5 times wind power in combination with other technology measures to limit global warming to well below 2°C and meet the targets of the Paris Agreement, according to DNV GL’s latest Energy Transition Outlook: Power Supply and Use report. The report finds that the energy transition is gathering pace more quickly than previously thought but the rate is still too slow to limit global temperatures rising by well below 2°C as set out in the Paris Agreement.

At the projected pace, DNV GL’s forecast indicates a world that is most likely to be 2.4°C warmer at the end of this century than in the immediate pre-industrial period. The technology already exists to curb emissions enough to hit the climate target. What is needed to ensure this happens are far-reaching policy decisions.

DNV GL recommends that the following technology measures are put in place to help close the emissions gap, the difference between the forecasted rate at which our energy system is decarbonizing and the pace we need to reach, to limit global warming to well below 2°C as set out by the Paris Agreement.

This combination of measures includes:

  1. Grow solar power by more than ten times to 5 TW and wind by 5 times to 3TW by 2030, which would meet 50% of the global electricity use per year.
  2. 50-fold increase in production of batteries for the 50 M electric vehicles needed per year by 2030, alongside investments in new technology to store excess electric energy and solutions that allow our electricity grids to cope with the growing influx of solar and wind power.
  3. Create new infrastructure for charging electric vehicles on a large scale.
  4. More than 1.5 MM$ of annual investment needed for the expansion and reinforcement of power grids by 2030, including ultra-high-voltage transmission networks and extensive demand-response solutions to balance variable wind and solar power.
  5. Increase global energy efficiency improvements by 3.5% per year within the next decade.
  6. Green hydrogen to heat buildings and industry, fuel transport and make use of excess renewable energy in the power grid.
  7. For the heavy industry sector: increased electrification of manufacturing processes, including electrical heating. Onsite renewable sources combined with storage solutions.
  8. Heat-pump technologies and improved insulation.
  9. Massive rail expansion both for city commuting and long-distance passenger and cargo transport.
  10. Rapid and wide deployment of carbon capture, utilization and storage installations.

The staggering pace of the energy transition continues. DNV GL’s report forecasts that by 2050 power generation from solar photovoltaic and wind energy will be 36,000 terawatt hours per year, more than 20 times today’s output. Greater China and India will have the largest share of solar energy by mid-century, with a 40% share of global installed PV capacity in China, followed by the Indian Subcontinent at 17%.

Globally, renewable energy will provide almost 80% of the world’s electricity by 2050 according to the report. The electrification will see increasing use of heat pumps, electric arc furnaces and an electric vehicle revolution, with 50% of all new cars sold in 2032 being electric vehicles.

Despite this rapid pace, the energy transition is not fast enough. DNV GL’s forecast indicates that, alarmingly, for a 1.5°C warming limit, the remaining carbon budget will be exhausted as early as 2028, with an overshoot of 770 Gt CO2 in 2050.

The report also demonstrates that the energy transition is affordable, the world will spend an ever-smaller share of GDP on energy. Global expenditure on energy is currently 3.6% of GDP but that will fall to 1.9% by 2050. This is due to the plunging costs of renewables and other efficiencies, allowing for greater investment to accelerate the transition.

DNV GL appeals to all 197 countries that signed the Paris Agreement to raise and realize increased ambitions for their updated Nationally Determined Contributions by 2020. In a snapshot of the first NDCs submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change secretariat, 75% currently refer to renewable energy, and 58% to energy efficiency. DNV GL calls on political leaders that both these percentages need to be 100% in the second NDCs.

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Parque eólico El Andévalo (Huelva) / El Andévalo wind farm (Huelva)

Iberdrola and Heineken España have added to their commitment to sustainability as a strategic thrust in their businesses with the first long-term Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) in Spain between an electricity supplier and a brewing group. The agreement reached by the two companies will promote the construction of a new photovoltaic plant in Andévalo, which will guarantee the supply of green electricity to the four breweries and offices of Heineken España. The plant will become operational in 2020, in PPA mode, avoiding the mission into the atmosphere of over 100,000 tonnes of CO2 a year.

Andévalo forms part of Iberdrola’s strategy of investing in clean power generation projects in Spain – where it plans to install 3,000 MW by 2022- and its commitment to using bilateral agreements with big customers who are committed to sustainable consumption as a way to promote the supply of energy at affordable, stable prices.

Through this partnership Heineken España will be able to brew its beer using only renewable energies by 2023. To achieve this, Heineken is implementing an ambitious road map which, among other initiatives, encompasses a 100% renewable electricity supply.

Located in the municipality of Puebla de Guzmán (Huelva) and with a surface area of 150 ha., the project will have an installed capacity of 50 MW and will consist of 147,000, 340 Wp polycrystalline silicon modules that will generate 82 GWh/yr. The plant will be built inside the biggest wind farm in continental Europe, El Andévalo (292 MW), developed and managed by Iberdrola since 2010.

In addition to its environmental impact, the new solar photovoltaic installation will contribute to reactivating employment in the local community

Iberdrola’s plan to relaunch clean energy in Spain

The Andévalo photovoltaic project forms part of the company’s commitment to strengthening its investment in the production of clean energy in Spain, by installing 3,000 new MW by 2022. By 2030, company forecasts point to the installation of 10,000 new megawatts (MW). The plan will create jobs for 20,000 people.

Iberdrola’s commitment is to lead the transition toward a completely carbon-free economy by promoting renewable energies and accelerating investment in Spain, where it intends to spend 8 billion euros between 2018 and 2022.

Iberdrola is the most prolific producer of wind energy in Spain, with installed power of 5,770 MW, while its total installed renewable capacity, including both wind and hydroelectric, is 15,828 MW. The company operates 883 MW in Andalusia, mainly using wind power. Globally, Iberdrola’s installed renewable capacity is over 30,300 MW, which makes its generation fleet one of the cleanest in the energy sector.

Iberdrola is a global reference point in the area of PPAs and has long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) in markets that include Spain, United States and Mexico, with wind and photovoltaic power projects totalling over 1,500 MW. In Spain, the company has been a pioneer in promoting this type of agreement with companies from various sectors (banking, telecommunications, distribution and sports brands).

Beer brewed 100% using renewable energy: the commitment from Heineken España

After covering all the demand for electricity from its breweries in Spain with the development of this new solar photovoltaic installation, Heineken’s plan focuses on replacing its current gas boilers with others that use solar energy in order to bring about its commitment to making its beers using only renewable energy by 2023.

These measures form part of its sustainability strategy Brewing a Better World, which focuses on six priority areas in which the company considers that its activities can make the most positive impact. Among them is the fight against climate change by reducing the amount of CO2 emitted into the atmosphere, a commitment on which Heineken España has made great progress in recent years by reducing its carbon footprint by 64% since 2008. In 2018, the company succeeded in meeting the 2020 goals two years ahead of schedule, setting new challenges for 2030 in the areas of production, cooling and packaging in order to meet the commitments of the Paris climate conference (COP 21) and the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), among which is the commitment to using only renewable energy for the entire production of its beers by 2023.

Source: Iberdrola

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The Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) has launched the first edition of its Global Offshore Wind Report, which provides a comprehensive analysis of the prospects for the global offshore wind market, including forecast data, market-level analysis and a review of efforts to lower costs.

The global offshore market has grown by an average of 21% each year since 2013, reaching total installations of 23 GW. More than 4 GW of new capacity were installed each year in 2017 and 2018, making up 8% of the total new installations during both years. For the first time, China was the largest offshore market in 2018 in new installations, followed by the UK and Germany.

Based on government targets, auction results and pipeline data, GWEC expects to see 190 GW of capacity installed by 2030, but this does not represent the full potential of offshore wind. Many new countries are preparing to join the offshore wind revolution, while floating offshore wind represents a game-changing technological development that can add even more volume in the years to come.

The industry is continuing to make significant strides on cost-competitiveness, with an average LCOE of US$50/MWh within reach. This achievement increases the attractiveness of offshore wind in mature markets where several governments are discussing long-term climate targets that, if they are to be achieved, must seriously consider the contribution large-scale offshore wind can make. New offshore markets represent significant potential and if industry and governments can work together, as we have seen recently in the case of Taiwan, we can build the necessary policy frameworks at greater speed to ensure growth can be achieved sooner than later.

The report, GWEC Market Intelligence, provides a market outlook representing a “business-as-usual” (BAU) scenario which does not incorporate more technical development or further opportunities for offshore wind, and an upside scenario which captures the additional potential.

The BAU scenario expects double-digit growth for the global offshore market based on current policies and expected auctions and tenders. This scenario makes annual installations of 15 to 20 GW after 2025 realistic based on growth in China and other Asian markets, amounting to 165 GW of new installed capacity globally between now and 2030. This would bring the total installed capacity to nearly 190 GW.

The upside scenario captures additional potential such as the advancement of floating technology, increased cost competitiveness and therefore greater volume in mature markets, as well as the opening of new offshore markets. Based on this scenario, a more positive outlook of over 200 GW installed capacity between now and 2030 is possible, totalling approximately 220 GW installed capacity.

  • Europe: Short-term, the European offshore market will remain flat with few projects reaching installation and COD during 2020, however, the cost competitiveness of European offshore will remain a key driver for volume. The Sector Deal in the UK provides a stable outlook, while volumes for Germany have still not increased despite government’s awareness. Total installed capacity for the region under the BAU scenario is expected to be 78 GW by 2030.
  • Asia: The Asian offshore market including China is expected to become the largest offshore region globally with key growth markets including Taiwan, Vietnam, Japan, India and South Korea. Total installed capacity for the region under the BAU scenario is 100 GW by 2030.
  • US: The first installation of large-scale projects, expected between 2021 and 2023, brings total installations to 2 GW by 2025. There is potential for 10 GW total installations towards 2030 with an increasing experience and maturing of the local supply chain.

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FuturENERGY Dec. 18 - Jan. 2019

The unsustainable mobility milestones implemented in little more than a century at global level can only be changed when the different societies that comprise our “global village” become truly aware of the multiple problems involved in pursuing the current model and in parallel, identify the existence of viable alternatives. The most visible part of the problems is currently focused on the large conurbations and can be seen in the millions of journeys made using private vehicles and the resultant damage they cause such as pollution, air quality, public health and the use of space… By EV Division at Circutor.

DESCARGA / DOWNLOAD PDF

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Major transformations are underway for the global energy sector, from growing electrification to the expansion of renewables, upheavals in oil production and globalization of natural gas markets. Across all regions and fuels, policy choices made by governments will determine the shape of the energy system of the future.

At a time when geopolitical factors are exerting new and complex influences on energy markets, underscoring the critical importance of energy security, World Energy Outlook 2018, the International Energy Agency’s flagship publication, details global energy trends and what possible impact they will have on supply and demand, carbon emissions, air pollution, and energy access.

The WEO’s scenario-based analysis outlines different possible futures for the energy system across all fuels and technologies. It offers a contrast with different pathways, based on current and planned policies, and those that can meet long-term climate goals under the Paris Agreement, reduce air pollution, and ensure universal energy access.

While the geography of energy consumption continues its historic shift to Asia, WEO 2018 finds mixed signals on the pace and direction of change. Oil markets, for instance, are entering a period of renewed uncertainty and volatility, including a possible supply gap in the early 2020s. Demand for natural gas is on the rise, erasing talk of a glut as China emerges as a giant consumer. Solar PV is charging ahead, but other low-carbon technologies and especially efficiency policies still require a big push.

In all cases, governments will have a critical influence in the direction of the future energy system. Under current and planned policies, modeled in the New Policies Scenario, energy demand is set to grow by more than 25% to 2040, requiring more than $2 trillion a year of investment in new energy supply.

The IEA’s analysis shows that over 70% of global energy investments will be government-driven and as such the message is clear – the world’s energy destiny lies with government decisions. Crafting the right policies and proper incentives will be critical to meeting common goals of securing energy supplies, reducing carbon emissions, improving air quality in urban centers, and expanding basic access to energy in Africa and elsewhere.

The analysis shows oil consumption growing in coming decades, due to rising petrochemicals, trucking and aviation demand. But meeting this growth in the near term means that approvals of conventional oil projects need to double from their current low levels. Without such a pick-up in investment, US shale production, which has already been expanding at record pace, would have to add more than 10 million barrels a day from today to 2025, the equivalent of adding another Russia to global supply in seven years – which would be an historically unprecedented feat.

In power markets, renewables have become the technology of choice, making up almost two-thirds of global capacity additions to 2040, thanks to falling costs and supportive government policies. This is transforming the global power mix, with the share of renewables in generation rising to over 40% by 2040, from 25% today, even though coal remains the largest source and gas remains the second-largest.

This expansion brings major environmental benefits but also a new set of challenges that policy makers need to address quickly. With higher variability in supplies, power systems will need to make flexibility the cornerstone of future electricity markets in order to keep the lights on. The issue is of growing urgency as countries around the world are quickly ramping up their share of solar PV and wind, and will require market reforms, grid investments, as well as improving demand-response technologies, such as smart meters and battery storage technologies.

Electricity markets are also undergoing a unique transformation with higher demand brought by the digital economy, electric vehicles and other technological change. As part of its deep-dive into the electricity sector this year, WEO 2018 also examines what impact of higher electrification in transportation, buildings and industry. The analysis finds that higher electrification would lead to a peak in oil demand by 2030, and reduce harmful local air pollutant. But it would have a negligible impact on carbon emissions without stronger efforts to increase the share of renewables and low-carbon sources of power.

The IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario offers a pathway to meeting various climate, air quality and universal access goals in an integrated way. In this scenario, global energy-related CO2 emissions peak around 2020 and then enter a steep and sustained decline, fully in line with the trajectory required to achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change.

But most emissions linked to energy infrastructure are already essentially locked-in. In particular, coal-fired power plants, which account for one-third of energy-related CO2emissions today, represent more than a third of cumulative locked-in emissions to 2040. The vast majority of these are related to projects in Asia, where average coal plants are just 11-years-old on average with decades left to operate, compared with 40 years on average age in the United States and Europe.

“We have reviewed all current and under-construction energy infrastructure around the world – such as power plants, refineries, cars and trucks, industrial boilers, and home heaters – and find they will account for some 95% of all emissions permitted under international climate targets in coming decades,” said Dr Birol.

“This means that if the world is serious about meeting its climate targets then, as of today, there needs to be a systematic preference for investment in sustainable energy technologies. But we also need to be much smarter about the way that we use our existing energy system. We can create some room for maneuver by expanding the use of Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage, hydrogen, improving energy efficiency. To be successful, this will need an unprecedented global political and economic effort.”

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According to data from REN (the Portuguese TSO), the renewable electricity produced in March (4,812 GWh) exceeded the consumption of Mainland Portugal (4,647 GWh). The renewable electricity production accounted for 103.6% of the electricity consumption, a value unmatched in the last 40 years. However, there were some hours when thermal fossil power plants and/or imports were required to complement the electricity supply of Portugal, these periods were nevertheless fully compensated by others of greater renewable production.

In the period under analysis, the daily share of renewable electricity in the consumption had a minimum of 86 %, on March 7, and a maximum of 143 %, on March 11. It should also be highlighted a 70-hour period, beginning on day 9, when the consumption was fully assured by renewable sources and another period of 69 hours, beginning at day 12.

These data, besides indicating a historical milestone in the Portuguese electricity sector, demonstrate the technical viability, security and reliability of the operation of the electrical system, with a large share of renewable electricity. The previous maximum occurred in February of 2014 with 99.2%.

In terms of resources, the main highlight goes to hydro and wind that accounted, respectively, for 55 % and 42 % of the monthly consumption. The total March production of renewables also avoided the emission of 1.8 million tons of CO2, which translated in savings of 21 million euros in the acquisition of emission allowances. In this analysis it is also worth noting the high monthly export balance of 19 % of the electricity consumption of Mainland Portugal (878 GWh).

This renewable share had a positive influence on lowering of the average daily wholesale market price, which was 39.75 €/MWh, price much lower than the same period of last year (43.94 €/MWh) when the weight of renewables in the electricity consumption was only 62 %.

Last month’s achievement is an example of what will happen more frequently in a near future. In fact, it is expected that by 2040 the production of renewable electricity will be able to guarantee, in a cost-effective way, the total annual electricity consumption of Mainland Portugal. However, it will eventually be necessary, here and then, the use of natural gas power plants, aggregated to interconnections and storage.

APREN and ZERO – Sustainable Earth System Association consider vital that national public policies and the European framework called “Clean Energy for All Europeans”, which is currently in the final phase of decision, enable Portugal to meet its carbon neutrality objectives by 2050, ensuring a strong expansion of solar energy and allowing decarbonisation through the increase of electricity demand in the transport and in the heating and cooling sectors.

Source: APREN

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Google, Norsk Hydro and Facebook are leading the growing trend of major companies looking to secure reliable and competitive power from renewable energy and reduce the risks associated with fossil fuel-based power supply. 100 top companies including leading industrial players are already committing to procure 100% renewable power in the short term through Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs).

The chemicals industry has also emerged as an actor in renewable energy PPAs. Earlier this year, AkzoNobel led a consortium to procure power from the Bouwdokken Wind Park in the Netherlands as part of a commitment to be carbon neutral by 2050.

PPAs are currently concentrated in Norway, Sweden, the Netherlands, the UK and Ireland. Expanding this potential will require clarifying the legal framework for PPAs and empowering renewable electricity generators to make use of Guarantees of Origin. This should be tackled head on as part of the post-2020 Renewable Energy Directive.

WindEurope and SolarPower Europe will lead this effort, in collaboration with RE100 and supported by CEFIC, by hosting the first in a series of annual renewable energy PPA events, RE-Source 2017 on 11 October 2017 in Brussels. Large energy consumers including chemical companies, Google and renewable energy players Engie, EDF Energies Nouvelles, ENEL Green Power, Envision and Vestas will come together with policymakers to ensure Europe can fully reap the benefits of a competitive and reliable renewable energy supply to power its economy.

Marco Mensink, Director General of CEFIC, said: “Corporate PPAs are a win-win: whilst enabling long-term contracts, they provide financial certainty for utilities and developers and they allow the chemical industry to contribute to sustainability goals. Corporate PPAs show that renewables are maturing into market based solutions.”

WindEurope CEO Giles Dickson added: “Wind energy producers can supply cheap power today thanks to a significant reduction in technology and operating costs in recent years. But they need stable revenues to sustain their investments. Corporate PPAs will play an increasing role in supplying corporates with power below the industrial retail price, while ensuring a stable revenue for wind energy generators. The new Renewable Energy Directive should help unlock this potential.”

Dr James Watson, CEO of SolarPower Europe, explains: “Renewable energy capacity covered by PPAs tripled in 2016 compared to 2015 confirming the rising appetite of corporates to procure green power. Last year, 1.5 GW of renewable energy capacity in Europe supplied power to corporates under PPAs – up from 74 MW just 4 years ago.”

Source: WindEurope

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What are cities’ commitments to sustainable development and energy efficiency? How can cities collaborate to improve the global environment? This article from the Madrid Subterra association, an organisation dedicated to the exploration and exploitation of energy originating from the urban subsoil, analyses the commitment of cities to the efficient development of our energy supply systems. It sets out some alternatives to the consumption of traditional fuels and invites us to explore the huge energy potential hidden beneath large urban centres such as Madrid.

According to the latest figures provided by the United Nations, some 55% of the world’s population lives in cities. This means that 70% of the earth’s greenhouse gases (GHG) are generated by large conurbations and these account for around 70% of the world’s energy consumption. Many organisms have warned about the need to reverse this situation, setting cities real environmental commitments as well as giving them a leading role in the fight against climate change.

 

Some of these commitments were set out in the New Urban Agenda adopted at Habitat III, the Third UN Conference on Housing and Sustainable Urban Development that took place in Quito, Ecuador in October 2016. In this new roadmap, cities undertake real objectives for the next 20 years to eradicate poverty, to protect the planet and to guarantee prosperity for all. Here is a reminder of some of these obligations. Read more…

Article published in: FuturENERGY March 2017

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In July 2014, the Madrid Health Service announced a public tender for a Mixed-Purpose Contract for Supplies and Works to construct and manage a natural gas-fired thermal plant at the Hospital Universitario La Paz. The 15-year contract had a tender budget of almost €45m (ex. VAT) to supply power to cover the hospital complex’s energy demand for heating, DHW and steam. Four proposals were submitted, with the contract finally being awarded to the joint venture comprising Gas Natural Servicios SDG and Veolia Servicios Lecam.

The Hospital Universitario La Paz is one of the largest hospitals in terms of importance in the Autonomous Community of Madrid and an essential part of the public healthcare system. Consisting of four buildings that house the General Hospital, Maternity Hospital, Children’s Hospital and Trauma Centre, the complex covers a surface area of 180,000 m2 and has a total of 1,328 beds.

 

Due to age (some 50 years) and the degree of wear and tear of its thermal installations, the Hospital Universitario La Paz was facing high energy and O&M costs in addition to: the risk of a lack of supply, with the resultant risk to the health and wellbeing of patients and workers., high environmental impact, due to the use of diesel. and an inability to handle increases in demand. Read more…

Mario Bonaut Prieto, Ana María Zafra, Gas Natural Fenosa
Raúl González Alcorlo, Veolia

Article published in: FuturENERGY January-February 2017

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Solar energy company Proinso has announced it will open a new operation in Indonesia’s West Java province. Proinso will have distribution and integrated products available in Indonesia along with PT. Surya Energi Indotama (SEI), a highly experienced local EPM division.

A spokesperson for Proinso commented, “Indonesia is a market of major focus for Proinso. With over 250 million people, a growing economy, good solar irradiance and energy deficiency it has vast opportunity. However, it has significant logistical and engineering challenges which our local partner is extremely experienced and successful in dealing with.”

Proinso has worked in partnership with PT SEI on numerous off-grid, distributed generation and utility projects over recent years and this consolidates leading capabilities, experience and relationships both locally and worldwide.

Earlier this year, Proinso opened seven new offices across Latin America. The company now has 27 office locations worldwide.

 

Source: Proinso

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